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When Will We All Reach the Long Tail?

Is there a point when everyone will have their own Twitter account? Or perhaps its Facebook?

With the outages in recent weeks on Facebook, I ask if that deters businesses from getting into the social media realm justifiably so.
Based on that churn rate, rather than 75 million registered Twitter users, RJ Metrics says that the real number of people who actually use it is more like 10-15 million worldwide. 
This recent report  place the number of US users at 17 million.
@ariherzig put it blunt: 83% are fake. He did something I think I would like to try with Twitter- test the chain. See who is actually paying attention. On Twitter in particular, see if you can get a REAL response.
It is EXPRESSLY easily to get on Twitter or Facebook and do simple clicks to follow or friend, but in the end what is the point if people aren't paying attention?
The niche strategy of the long tail would seem to imply that eventually we will all be on these social media platforms, yes? 
These predictions from Gartner seems to bare this out. This is speaking to the business side, but wouldn't some adoption and push be necessarily led by consumer usage as well?
This all comes back to influence, or more importantly, engaging your customers. If you don't know why you would be using these tools, ie your customers use them, then maybe you ought not use them either.
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